Hawai’i Challenges Top Stats In The Nation With COVID-19

Preliminary Analysis II While the response of certain elected officials have been questionable in Hawai’i, data shows that our island communities are taking COVID-19 seriously. The data shows that the population of Hawai’i have dramatically decreased their mobility in the last month in response to the global Coronavirus Pandemic. Additionally, testing rates in Hawai’i per-capita are above average in the United States, and the amount positive test results returned are significantly below average. Compiling data between Hawai’i Department of Transportation, Google’s COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, and the Unacast Social Distancing Scoreboard, shows that Hawai’i as a whole have made significant changes to their normal routines and behaviors. Testing statistics have also returned encouraging results in Hawai’i when compared with the rest of American states. New York State maintains the highest per capita testing in the nation, yet the rate New York is returning positive COVID-19 test results is a magnitude higher than Hawai’i. Stats Used In Determining Social Distancing Since Mid February: Traffic volume across Hawai’i state drops off 45.6%. - Hawaii DoH, last update 3.25.2020 Retail & recreation like restaurants, cafes, shopping centers, etc, are down 56%. Grocery & pharmacy, including farmers markets have gone down by 36%. Parks and beach usage is down 65%. All public transit stations are down 72%. Workplace mobility is down 45%. Places of residence usage, people being at home, is up 16%. Stats for each Hawai’i County are broken down in an attached image. To compare how Hawai’i compares to other states, see: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ - Google, COVID-19 Community Mobility Report, last update March 29th. ---------- Nationwide Testing Statistics Nationwide, the ratio between positive test results and tests taken (hit-rate) is 19%. The nationwide testing per-capita is 430 per 100,000 people. - COVID Tracking Project, as of April 3rd. 2018 Census. NOTE: A wide testing program in a given region can be indicated by the per-capita testing rates. The higher the per-capita testing, the more thoroughly the testing has been conducted to date between different population densities. The ratio between positive test results and total tests conducted (hit-rate) indicates how saturated a region is with COVID-19 infections in the population. A low hit-rate gives some indications that there is a low underlying infection in the community, with some reservations noted in LIMITATIONS. Per Capita Testing In Hawai’i: In Hawai’i, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 2.5%, per capita testing rate of 865 per 100,000 people. (12,283 tests, 317 positives) Comparing to Testing In A Few States: In New York, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 38%, per capita testing rate of 1,387 per 100,000 people. (271,002 tests, 102,863 positives) In California, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 30%, per capita testing rate of 892 per 100,000 people. (35,300 tests, 10,701 positives) In Louisiana, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 19%, per capita testing rate of 1,096 per 100,000 people. (53,645 tests, positives 10,297) In Colorado, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 19%, per capita testing rate of 387 per 100,000 people. (22,071 tests, 4,173 positives) In Alabama, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 16%, per capita testing rate of 198 per 100,000 people. (9,722 tests, 1,535 positives) In Texas, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 10%, per capita testing rate of 192 per 100,000 people. (55,764 tests, 5,330 positives) In Florida, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 10%, per capita testing rate of 479 per 100,000 people. (102,067 tests, 11,111 tests) In Washington, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 8%, per capita testing rate of 1,150 per 100,000 people. (82,599 tests, positives 6,966) In Utah, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 5%, per capita testing rate of 767 per 100,000 people. (24,248 tests, 1,246 positives) In New Mexico, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 3%, per capita testing rate of 746 per 100,000 people. (15,632 tests, 495 positives) In Florida, the hit-rate on COVID-19 test samples is 10%, per capita testing rate of 479 per 100,000 people. (102,067 tests, 11,111 tests) - Compiled data from COVID Tracking Project, 2018 Census, Hawai’i Department of Health, 4.3.2020. Summary Data would indicate that Hawai’i has had a significant drop-off in movement of people in Hawai’i. This is initially encouraging data for Hawai’i. After processing 12,283 COVID-19 tests for Hawai’i, the initial results are also encouraging. Many areas in the United States are seeing significantly more positive cases per test taken, or have not seen the reductions in mobility that Hawai’i has seen. Personal Note: There is plenty room of improvements in Hawaii’s testing capability relatively, but using the data available suggests Hawai’i is taking the threat of COVID-19 seriously. There is also room for improvement in social distancing. When combining the metrics to determine social distancing and testing for COVID-19, Hawai’i ranks among the strongest in the nation. Social distancing statistics strongly suggest the adoption of recommendations by medical professionals, like Hawai’i Lt. Gov. Josh Green. However, there are considerations to be made in these findings for tourism, and other visitors that have left the island in the last month, and those that have canceled their vacations. On a typical day in 2019, there would be roughly 30,000 visitors traveling to Hawai’i on average. Yesterday, there were 94 visitors to the state, according the Hawai’i Tourism Authority. Considering the limitations in testing, and the differences in recording and testing methodologies across America; this data suggests Hawai’i Island, Kaua’i and Maui are “ahead of the curve” on testing. Looking at positive cases reported by Hawai’i Department of Health the rates of growth currently focus on O‘ahu. O’ahu accounts for approximately 72% of the population in Hawai’i, and represents 77% of positive test results in the islands. LIMITATIONS - Known Faults and Limitations in Testing - Nationwide and in Hawai’i, not everyone that desires a test are being tested, even some with symptoms. Delays in testing are creating issues, the most common testing methods can take several days to receive results. The amount of infected can be assumed to be significantly higher than the official totals. - Tourism in Hawai’i - It’s possible that even significant portions of this data is skewed by tourism, and the current lack there-of. The use of GPS data and sensor data on roadways could still potentially be misleading when considering resident’s movements. If previous averages are incorporated, and the majority of visitors are now no longer on island, then data used can be misleading in determining mobility alterations by the residents of Hawai’i. - No public stats exist that distinguish the rate each county in Hawai’i is testing, only state Department of Health statistics exist. - The bulk of this work was done over the course of a day, there may be errors. - Visitors testing positive for COVID-19 are low statistically. One possible explanation is that to cases are being accounted for upon return home, if tested. 80% of cases for COVID-19 do not require hospitalization. - This is not a precise analysis. The goal of this post is only to show in general how Hawai’i is handling relatively to the mainland. Sources: Hawaii Department of Transportation has provided data from sensors on main roadways around the state: https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/covid-19-traffic-volume-comparison/ Google has step-up publicly available, their Community Mobility Reports can be viewed at: https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/ The Covid Tracking Project is maintaining statistics on nationwide testing, broken down by states: https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily/ Unacast has their own metrics for measuring ‘social distancing’, their results can be viewed here: https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard